Mega-round numbers (investments totaling $100m+) have been on the rise since Q1 2020 and this quarter did not disappoint, with more than 200 mega-rounds in a single quarter for the first time. Nearly 60% of all capital raised in Q2 came from 205 deals totaling $41.6b. This quarter also saw a large increase of private equity participation in the venture asset class. We’ve seen this trend over a number of years and without it, we wouldn’t be seeing the large number of mega round financing.
As a by-product of mega round financings, we continue to see explosive growth in the US unicorn population with over 160 created during the first half of 2021 . For context, new unicorns in Q2 alone was equivalent to full year 2020. Given the vast amount of available capital in the alternative asset class (including venture capital) combined with the largest population of startups we have ever seen, this virtually ensures we will see many more unicorns in the near term.
Dot-com comparisons
When I am asked if I see any similarities with the current volume of exuberant investing with the dot-com era 20 years ago, I often say the level of activity we’re seeing today makes the dot-com era look tame by comparison. There is a big overhang in the venture capital asset class in terms of available capital and portfolio companies. We are seeing many companies that have raised significant amounts of money who now have a lot more options for liquidity.
Will the unicorn era end as badly as the dot.com era did? It’s an interesting question. The difference is that many of today’s companies have real revenue and substance. However, not every company will succeed. At some point we expect to see the market cool, as all markets do. If anything, companies have been staying private too long compared to the dot-com era of going public too early.
Trouble ahead or bright skies?
Just a year ago, we were staring into the abyss of the pandemic while trying to sort out the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), burn rates and revenue plans and what the lockdowns would mean for business and personal lives. Now, the money continues to flow and shows no signs of abating.
The situation could turn quickly for a variety of known and unknown reasons. For the immediate future however, we see more bright skies ahead. Capital formation fundamentals are strong and investment opportunities in existing portfolio companies as well as new investment themes are at record levels.
Today’s environment represents a massive opportunity for the industry. I see a very long tail ahead and while we may still be in the early stages, this is truly a transformational time in a “golden age” of venture capital and innovation. I see a very bullish outlook for the venture market over the next few years.