The share of working age population in global working age population is projected to be the highest at 28.9% by 2070 for Sub-Saharan Africa, followed by central and southern Asia at 26.6%. India’s share of working age population in the total global working age population is not significantly higher than its share in total global population. The peak of this profile of working age population is reached in 2030 at 18.8% and then it falls to 16.4% by 2070. Thus, India’s share in the supply of working age persons would be lower than that of Eastern and Southeastern Asia and Oceania, particularly up to 2040 and Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in the latter three decades.
Considering individual countries, India is projected to have the largest share in total and working age global population by 2070 exceeding the next highest country namely, China by a significant margin.
Who is aging faster than India?
All countries are ageing fast, as reflected by rising median age of populations. Median age would be the highest for China by 2070 at 52.6 years. The eastern and South-eastern and Oceania group would also have a much older population by 2070 with a median age of 47.7 years. The youngest population would be that of Sub-Saharan Africa where the median age would be 25.3 years in 2070. India’s median age is projected to increase from 20 years in 2000 to 41 years by 2070, reflecting substantive ageing of the population in comparison.
India to remain least urbanized in the 21st century
An important dimension of the evolving population profile of different countries/country groups pertains to their location in terms of the rural vis-à-vis urban areas. As populations progressively shift towards urban areas, the population density and their per capita incomes increase. For all country groups, we can observe that the urbanization rate is increasing without any exception. By 2040, there would only be two country groups namely, central and southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, where urbanization would be less than or close to 50%. India’s urbanization rate at 65.8% in 2070 would be lower than that of Sub-Saharan Africa (Table 2). It may, however, be noted that India’s urbanization rate is somewhat underestimated1.