7 minute read 29 Apr 2024
Population trends in the 21st century

Population trends in the 21st century: what are India’s opportunities?

By D. K. Srivastava

EY India Chief Policy Advisor

A noted economist, D.K. Srivastava is an Honorary Professor at Madras School of Economics and Member of the Advisory Council to the 15th Finance Commission.

7 minute read 29 Apr 2024
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Global demographic trends offer both challenges and opportunities for India.

In brief

  • Demographic profiles of countries and country groups are projected to change significantly through the rest of the 21st century.
  • The window of opportunity for India is limited. Appropriate policy initiatives are needed to take the best possible advantage of it.
  • With the population share of Sub-Saharan Africa expected to increase rapidly by 2070, India may play a key role in supporting the economies of this region.

The 21st century is likely to unfold as a dynamic era of significant shifts in global population trends. In this context, our latest issue of Economy Watch navigates the evolving contours of population shares of individual countries and major country groups, the dynamics of their working-age population, and emerging urbanization trends. 

Share in global total and working age population in the 21st century: India and the world

For most country groups, their share in population changes marginally from 2000 to 2070 (Table 1). There is only one country group namely, Sub-Saharan Africa, whose share in global population is projected to increase from 10.5% in 2000 to 26.9% by 2070. India’s global population share is projected to fall incrementally from 17.8% in 2020 to 16.4% by 2070. Amongst the developed country groups, Europe’s share falls from 11.8% to 6.3% between 2000 and 2070 and that of Northern America from 5.1% to 4.2%. Another noticeable fall is seen for Eastern and South-eastern Asia and Oceania wherein China’s population share falls from 20.6% to 10.5% between 2000 and 2070. Thus, two country groups namely, Central and Southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, that are currently relatively lower income country groups, would account for more than 50% of the world population by 2070.

The share of working age population in global working age population is projected to be the highest at 28.9% by 2070 for Sub-Saharan Africa, followed by central and southern Asia at 26.6%. India’s share of working age population in the total global working age population is not significantly higher than its share in total global population. The peak of this profile of working age population is reached in 2030 at 18.8% and then it falls to 16.4% by 2070. Thus, India’s share in the supply of working age persons would be lower than that of Eastern and Southeastern Asia and Oceania, particularly up to 2040 and Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in the latter three decades.

Considering individual countries, India is projected to have the largest share in total and working age global population by 2070 exceeding the next highest country namely, China by a significant margin.

Who is aging faster than India?

All countries are ageing fast, as reflected by rising median age of populations. Median age would be the highest for China by 2070 at 52.6 years. The eastern and South-eastern and Oceania group would also have a much older population by 2070 with a median age of 47.7 years. The youngest population would be that of Sub-Saharan Africa where the median age would be 25.3 years in 2070. India’s median age is projected to increase from 20 years in 2000 to 41 years by 2070, reflecting substantive ageing of the population in comparison.

India to remain least urbanized in the 21st century

An important dimension of the evolving population profile of different countries/country groups pertains to their location in terms of the rural vis-à-vis urban areas. As populations progressively shift towards urban areas, the population density and their per capita incomes increase. For all country groups, we can observe that the urbanization rate is increasing without any exception. By 2040, there would only be two country groups namely, central and southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, where urbanization would be less than or close to 50%. India’s urbanization rate at 65.8% in 2070 would be lower than that of Sub-Saharan Africa (Table 2). It may, however, be noted that India’s urbanization rate is somewhat underestimated1.

 

Gender balance by country

Gender ratio is defined as the number of males per 100 females. In terms of the global profile, Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean would have a gender ratio of below 100 up to 2070. In Northern America and Sub-Saharan Africa, gender ratios remained well below 100 up to 2020. These are projected to gradually move closer to 100 by 2070. Country groups with gender ratio well above 100 include Central and Southern Asia, including India and Northern Africa and Western Asia.

The opportunity for India

India will have to develop a strategy of growth that depends on exporting human resources or services based on human resources to countries where populations would have aged faster. These countries would pertain to Eastern and South-eastern Asia and Oceania and Central and Southern Asia which together would account for 58.3% of the global old age population by 2070. In these countries, there will be a relatively high demand for health services accompanied by a shortage of human resources for regular industrial and business activities.

India will also need to develop a special relationship with Sub-Saharan Africa, which will have much younger persons. For ensuring that this relatively young population is adequately educated and skilled, India would have to facilitate provision of adequate education and training facilities in these countries. These countries are also mineral-rich countries, and it will be to India’s benefit to develop a close relationship with them to access their minerals using an equitable, non-exploitative and environment-friendly approach. India may also help these countries develop their infrastructure. 

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Summary

India will have to develop a strategy of growth that depends on exporting human resources (HR) or HR-related services to countries where the share of old age population is relatively high. Such countries would have a high demand for health services. India will also need to facilitate provision of adequate education and training facilities to Sub-Saharan Africa which will have much younger persons. It might also benefit India to develop a close relationship in order to gain access to mineral resources in these countries using an equitable, non-exploitative and environment-friendly approach. 

About this article

By D. K. Srivastava

EY India Chief Policy Advisor

A noted economist, D.K. Srivastava is an Honorary Professor at Madras School of Economics and Member of the Advisory Council to the 15th Finance Commission.

Related topics Tax