Why is there a need to recognize state-differentiated demographic dividend?
One important dimension of India’s demographic dividend is the differential evolution of the age profile across states. Many of the large population and relatively less developed states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Odisha will have relatively younger population during the later decades of the century. On the other hand, some of the present day developed states are already characterized by ageing populations. This differentiated demographic profile across states will have significant policy implications. Priorities for training, educating and skilling of the population may take into account the time differentiated demographic profiles of Indian states with a view to generating an optimal growth impact.
How median ages evolve at differentiated pace across states
The latest available Census figures in India still pertain to 2011 as the 2021 census has not been conducted yet due to delays caused by COVID-19. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) however, has projected forward, state-wise population up to 2036. Based on these projections, Table 1 shows that there are considerable differences in the way the size and age profiles of state wise population are going to evolve. One common trend, however, is that population growth rates are expected to fall across all states. For some high per capita income states, such as Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Telangana, population growth rates would fall to near-zero by 2036. In some of the present-day less developed states such as Odisha, Punjab, Karnataka and UP, population growth rates are expected to be in the range of 0.3% to 0.5%. Bihar, being the lowest per capita income state presently, would still show a population growth rate of 1% by 2036. As a result of these differential population growth rates, the age structure of the population of different states also shows different profiles. This is summarily captured in the inter-state profile of the median age of the population. By 2036, Tamil Nadu would have the highest median age of 40.5 years, while median age in Bihar, Jharkhand, and Madhya Pradesh by this time would still be 28.1, 31.4, and 31.7 years respectively.