Top 10 geopolitical developments for 2024

A line graph showing how corporate attention to geopolitics has waned somewhat since peaking in early 2022, even though global political risk remains elevated.

An interactive illustration of the top 10 geopolitical developments in the 2024 Geostrategic Outlook. Those developments are:

1. The geopolitical multiverse
   The growing influence of geopolitical swing states and smaller players seeking to change the status quo will create a more complex multiverse. Companies should realign their global footprint and corporate strategy to fit a multipolar geopolitical landscape.
2. Geopolitics of AI
   The dual races to innovate and regulate AI will accelerate the shift toward distinct geopolitical blocs. Companies need to develop business models and technology strategies around AI that account for different regulatory approaches across markets.
3. Domestic challenges in the US and China
   Political risks are heightened within each market and could have knock-on effects for geopolitics and global growth. Companies should factor internal challenges in the US and China, as well as their impact on other countries exposed to these two markets, into corporate strategies.
4. Global elections supercycle
   Multiple upcoming elections worldwide will generate regulatory and policy uncertainty, with long-term implications for industrial strategies, climate policies and ongoing military conflicts. Companies need to conduct scenario analysis to explore the potential impacts.
5. Prioritizing economic security
   Economic security measures to “de-risk” global interdependencies will be a prime tool in geostrategic competition. Companies should assess whether parts of their supply chains are strategic to governments now or strategic in the future and adapt their supply chain strategy accordingly.
6. The diversification agenda
   Value chain diversification will pose both upside and downside political risks for companies entering or expanding in alternative markets. Companies should rethink their supply chain strategies and potentially expand production capacity and supplier relationships in new markets.
7. Geopolitics of the oceans
   Competition over the world’s oceans will intensify in 2024, with implications for supply chains, data flows, food supplies and energy security. Companies should build resilience to the potential impacts of maritime shipping insurance rate increases, shipment delays or damaged cargos and vessels.
8. Competition for commodities
   Geopolitical competition will intensify to secure supplies of critical minerals, food and water. Companies need to analyze current and future access to renewable energy and water in markets around the world, as well as the potential for public attention to their water and energy usage.
9. Dual track green policies
   The national goals of economic growth and energy security will drive countries’ climate policies. Companies should incorporate policy-driven risks and opportunities into sustainability agendas, while staying ahead of the regulatory curve globally.
10. Climate adaptation imperative
    Even as policymakers strive to mitigate climate change through emissions reductions, the urgency of adapting to the current physical risks of climate change will come into sharper focus. Companies should explore opportunities for investing in nature-based solutions and other adaptation initiatives.

A visual illustration of how the top 10 geopolitical developments in the 2024 Geostrategic Outlook may impact certain sectors and sub-sectors. The sectors and predicted impacts are:

• Advanced manufacturing and mobility
  Economic security policies are likely to provide growth and investment opportunities for manufacturers. But the competition for commodities will affect the price and availability of critical inputs.
• Consumer products and retail
  Climate policies may provide opportunities for consumer companies to invest in this space. But the risk of geopolitical tensions disrupting critical shipping lanes could raise shipping costs and insurance rates.
• Energy and resources
  Dual track green policies will affect business models and strategies across the entire sector. Competition for commodities will pose risks and opportunities to miners, utilities and biofuels producers.
• Financial services
  Economic security and the diversification agenda are affecting banks’ and insurers’ global footprints and strategies. And the geopolitical multiverse will affect foreign exchange rates and currency markets.
• Government and infrastructure
  The global elections supercycle will in many cases slow the policymaking agenda. And elections systems will be at risk of foreign interference via cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns or financial operations.
• Health sciences and wellness
  Economic security policies may affect companies’ global footprints and supply chains. The geopolitics of AI will affect companies that are exploring how to harness AI to transform healthcare.
• Private equity
  Economic security is likely to create opportunities to finance investments and to launch more local start-funds. The geopolitics of AI and the climate adaptation imperative will affect funds’ investment theses.
• Technology, media and telecommunications
  Economic security policies will affect the investments and sales of semiconductor manufacturers and telecommunications companies. Data centers’ high energy use could come under scrutiny.