As someone deeply engaged with the financial market, how would you assess 2023?
It was one of the most difficult years for the Vietnamese economy, reflected in a GDP growth rate of only 5.05 per cent, lower than planned. In a 10-year period, the growth was only higher than 2020 and 2021 – the two peak years of the pandemic. As businesses face many challenges, I have interacted with many business leaders who are confused as market demand in certain fields has almost disappeared.
However, I think the difficulties are only short-term. We have seen signs of improvement in the global economy since late 2023, when the pace of interest rate increases in major economies showed signs of cooling.
In the United States, the job market improved in the last two months of 2023, consumption increased sharply, and the consumer price index showed signs of cooling down, especially in the second half of 2023, causing the Fed to say they would end the cycle of raising interest rates, and planned to cut rates in 2024.
The domestic market also sees many bright spots in terms of exports, controlling inflation and attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). Vietnam’s trade surplus was $28 billion in 2023, more than double the previous year. It was also the 10th consecutive year that inflation has been controlled within target.
In the context of declining global investment capital flows, investors continue to choose Vietnam as a destination. Total registered FDI capital in 2023 is estimated to reach $20.19 billion, an increase of 62.2 per cent compared to the previous year.
Where do you think businesses will find the most opportunities?
Looking at the long term, we have many advantages. In the international market, Vietnam is more favourable thanks to continuing to maintain effective cooperation with major partners in the world. Vietnam has also signed many bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements with the most vibrant markets.
According to EY analysis, Vietnam can become a modern industry with high average income by 2030. That same year, Vietnam will have 48 million people with an income over $20 per day, more than those in Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
In terms of human resources, Vietnam has a young, hard-working, creative, and especially eager to learn workforce. The society’s level of investment in education is large, leading to a well-trained workforce. While there are also shortages of high-level, high-tech labour, the workforce’s tendency to integrate and catch up with international standards is improving.
Furthermore, advancements in technology and sustainability, particularly in emerging technologies, provide Vietnamese companies with opportunities for rapid advancement and competitive parity with global counterparts, as these trends disrupt and reshape industry norms.